| | UCLA Study Predicts Surgeon Shortage
Researchers at UCLA have determined that due to the aging population, the demand for surgery will increase nearly 50 percent for some specialties by the year 2020. As a result, there will be a widespread shortage of surgeons.
The study is featured in the August, 2003 issue of Annals of Surgery.
Researchers found that surgeries performed on predominantly older adults, such as cataract and heart surgery, will have the highest increase in demand, closely followed by cardiothoracic surgery with a 42 percent increase.
The study also showed that by the year 2020 the largest population surge will be in the 65 and older age group, which will increase by 53 percent. Study authors warn that it already is too late to avert a shortage, since it takes eight to 14 years to train surgeons
Following is a breakdown of how demand will increase for certain surgical specialties by 2020
| Surgical Specialty | % increase |
| Ophthalmology | | 47% |
| Cardiothoracic surgery | | 42% |
General surgery
(vascular, abdominal, gastrointestinal, hernia,
breast, and pediatric) | | 31% |
| Urology | | 35% |
| Orthopedics | | 28% |
| Neuro | | 28% |
| Otolaryngology | | 14% |
In addition to aging, the study notes that improving technology makes many surgical procedures easier and more appealing, which also is increasing demand.
The study supports increasing evidence of a looming physician shortage, such as the report published in the February, 2002 edition of Health Affairs predicting a shortage of 200,000 physicians by the year 2020.
|
