Changing Practice Styles:

Physician practice styles have changed over the last decade or more, eroding the number of total physician man hours available. Younger physicians spend less time working than older ones, the AMA reports, and may spend more time per patient. In our experience, younger "Generation X and Y" physicians put a greater premium on personal and family time than older physicians and often seek set hours, regular vacations and the other trappings of professional employment.

Female Physicians:

The growing number of female physicians is having a profound and impact on overall physician supply. The number of female physicians, who now comprise more than 50 percent of some residency programs, has grown dramatically in the last 20 years. In 2001, 46 percent of the entering medical school class was female. By 2011, that number had grown to 52 percent Females now constitute the majority of family practice, pediatric and obstetrician/gynecologist residents. According to the AMA, female physicians work 18 percent fewer hours per week than male physicians, greatly reducing the overall number of physician man hours available. In addition, the growing number of female physicians will further increase the number of doctors working locum tenens, as female physicians seek practice options allowing them to balance professional and personal needs.

Escalating Paperwork:

Contributing to the factors inhibiting the supply of physicians and other health professionals is the growing amount of paperwork now required in healthcare. Government and insurance-related bureaucratic paperwork now consumes one hour for each hour physicians devote to patient care, according to a recent American Hospital Association study further diminishing the number of total physician man hours available.

Physician Aging/Attrition:

While the general population is aging, so is the physician population. More than one-third of all physicians are 55 years old and older, and are at or are nearing retirement age . A survey of physicians conducted by Merritt Hawkins indicates that 16 plan to retire in the next 1-3 years, while 14% percent plan to work temporary (locum tenens) assignments. The number of older physicians working locum tenens can be expected to greatly accelerate as more older physicians seek non-traditional practice options.

One impetus for early physician retirement is the recent steep rise in malpractice insurance rates, which are literally driving physicians out of some states. Further, physicians site managed care, increasing government interference in healthcare and declining reimbursement as other reasons for early retirement. Some experts believe attrition may cause a net decline in the number of practicing physicians in coming years. The MGT of America, a higher education consulting group, predicts that by 2020, more than 23,000 physicians will retire or die each year, while the number of physicians entering the workforce each year will remain constant at around 16,000 to 17,000, if the medical education system does not change. At present, there is no concerted effort to increase the number of medical graduates.

Shortage of 200,000 Physicians:

As a result of these factors, a study published in the Jan./Feb. 2002 issue of the prestigious journal Health Affairs concludes that the U.S. will be facing a shortage of 200,000 physicians by the year 2025, if current trends continue. The Association of American Medical Colleges recently projected a shortage of 156,000 physicians by 2025. Merritt Hawkins has written about the physician shortage in a book entitled "Will the Last Physician in America Please Turn Off the Lights? A Look at America's Looming Doctor Shortage." Copies of the book may be obtained from the publisher here.

As stated above, however, changes in medical education take time to implement. The physician shortage can only be expected to accelerate in the coming five to 10 years because the factors driving it are accelerating.

CONCLUSION

All of this is a rather long-winded way of saying that the employment prospects in medicine remain very good. We see little advantage, therefore, in mapping out a medical career based on which specialties may be in demand in the future. Instead, we believe students should select a specialty based on their inherent interests. If you wish to become a surgeon, you will probably find your medical career more fulfilling if you specialize in surgery. The same holds true for other specialties. There are many "hassle factors" in medicine today and we find that the physicians who weather these best are the ones who have a passion for their particular specialty.