The U.S. Census Bureau projects that the total U.S. population will grow from 286 million people in 2000 to 335 million people in 2020. Should the average number of physician visits per person per year remain constant at 3.0, population growth will account for 150 million more physician visits per year in 2020 than occurred in 2000.

Recruitment Pervasive:

As a result of these factors, physicians are in extremely high demand. According to a national survey conducted by Merritt Hawkins, more than 85 percent of hospitals in the United States are actively recruiting physicians, while an additional 5 percent plan to actively recruit physicians in the next six months. The firm estimates that some 65 to 75 percent of physician medial groups also are actively recruiting physicians.

A DIMINISHING SUPPLY

Growth in demand for physician services has been accompanied by a shrinking supply of physicians available to provide services.

New Entrants:

The number of physicians entering the market has increased in recent years, as has the number of physicians per population. Nevertheless, the number physicians trained in the U.S. has remained relatively stagnant for over 20 years. In 1997, Congress capped federal spending on residency training. Until that cap is removed, the number of physicians entering the market each year will remain flat. Currently, there are no plans to increase federal funding for physician Graduate Medical Education (GME). To the contrary, GME funding may be cut, further limiting the number of new physicians entering the market.